• China's wholesale sales of passenger NEVs are expected to rise 16% year-on-year to 1.51 million units in August.
• The back-to-school season typically supports replacement demand in late August, but market activity failed to rebound as expected this year, the CPCA said.

China's wholesale sales of passenger new energy vehicles (NEVs) are estimated to have reached 1.51 million units in August, up 16% year-on-year, extending a recovery following a pullback earlier this year.

The estimated volume rose 4% from July, with wholesale growth continuing to outpace the overall passenger vehicle market, according to preliminary data released Wednesday by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).

However, stronger wholesale sales have yet to fully filter through to the retail market. The CPCA said China's August NEV market was marked by record penetration and rising wholesale volumes, but weak retail demand.

High oil prices and an improved product offering continue to push consumers toward electric vehicles. Leading automakers' accelerated shift to electrification also supported wholesale volumes.

At the same time, a seasonal lull, weak consumer sentiment, a high comparison base and dealer inventory pressure continued to weigh on demand.

The back-to-school season typically supports replacement demand in late August, but market activity failed to rebound as expected this year, the CPCA said.

That suggests the industry has entered a bottoming and recovery phase, though September and October data will be needed to gauge the strength of the peak season.

Growth also broadened among automakers. BYD (HKEX: 1211), Geely Auto (HKEX: 0175), Chery Auto (HKEX: 9973) and Leapmotor (HKEX: 9863) all posted record August NEV wholesale sales.

GWM (HKEX: 2333), Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), Nio Inc (NYSE: NIO), SAIC-GM-Wuling, SAIC Passenger Vehicle and Arcfox also set August records.

SAIC-GM, GAC Toyota, GAC Trumpchi and Changan Mazda were among the other manufacturers posting their best-ever August results, showing that electrification-driven growth has spread from Chinese brands and EV startups to more joint ventures.

Company-reported data previously compiled by CnEVPost also showed that BYD and Leapmotor set year-to-date or all-time monthly records in August. However, deliveries by Huawei-backed HIMA (Harmony Intelligent Mobility Alliance) declined year-on-year, underscoring the uneven nature of the industry's growth.

Those company figures include global sales or deliveries and are not directly comparable with the CPCA's estimate of passenger NEV wholesale sales in China.

The CPCA's latest estimate is based on manufacturers whose NEV wholesale volumes exceeded 10,000 units in July. Their combined sales accounted for 93% of China's total passenger NEV wholesale volume that month.

A preliminary tally put the group's August NEV sales at about 1.41 million units. Based on their previous market share, the CPCA estimated nationwide wholesale volume at about 1.51 million units.